Mohave Daily News: Local

BULLHEAD CITY - Experts agree it's not a matter of if a flu pandemic will strike the United States but when and how the virus will spread.

Arizona has held a series of forums during the last several months in hopes of preparing communities for the devastation of a flu pandemic. Western Arizona Regional Medical Center is working to assure the highest level of preparedness, officials said.

“The first thing we need to do is educate the public prior to the onset of an emergency,” said WARMC Infection Control Practitioner Pam Nolting. “People can prepare for a disaster in their homes if they know what to expect.”

Every 50-100 years, the world experiences a serious flu outbreak that kills hundreds of thousands, she said.

“At some point, we don't know how soon, there will be an illness at the pandemic level,” Nolting said. “The last severe pandemic was in 1918 during World War I called the Spanish Flu. It claimed more than 50 million lives.”

The most likely culprit for a pandemic level illness in the near future would be the Avian Influenza, or bird flu (H5N1), that has reared its head in Asia and is slowly moving west, she said.

“We don't know for sure what strain of the flu might become a pandemic but we believe it will be some variation of the bird flu,” Nolting said. “We do know that we will see it coming. It may be only a matter of days, but we will have some prior warning.”

To avoid a mad rush of frenzied, worried people, storming grocery store shelves and pharmacy supplies, Nolting recommends people prepare in advance.

“Start stockpiling three months of medication and food stores,” she said. “A clean garbage can is great for storing dry food and nonperishable items.”

After Hurricane Katrina communities realized how ill-prepared they were for a disaster of large proportion and steps are being taken to assure a rapid response the next time disaster strikes, Nolting said.

“We have to be prepared at the state level,” she said. “Look at Katrina and how it affected not just those people geographically involved but all the communities that absorbed those fleeing the disaster. Now, let's say it was the bird flu that struck the Gulf Coast. It's a very different picture.”

According to projections, the flu pandemic will kill a maximum of 40 percent of those who contract the illness, down from the 50 percent succumbing in the third world countries currently dealing with the Avian Influenza, said WARMC Director of Cardiopulmonary Services Gary Lynch, who is a member of the pandemic flu response team.

“We wont know for sure until it actually hits, but a pandemic flu is going to affect millions,” he said. “One thing that's unusual about a pandemic flu is that it will hit people in the 20- to 40-year-old range. Usually healthy people in the middle age range are not at risk for influenza. It usually strikes young children and the elderly, but a pandemic flu will most affect that middle range group.”

While seasonal flu is caused by a virus most people have been exposed to before, pandemic flu is a new virus the immune system has not yet been subjected to, he said.

To combat this new strain of influenza, the state has put into effect the Arizona Pandemic Flu Plan, which includes stockpiling supplies, Lynch said.

“It's very likely that a pandemic will disrupt every day routines, such as school, public gatherings, even church,” he said. “All services will be disrupted, electricity, water, police and fire. Will there be enough people well and available to continue these services?”

One of the main concerns at the state level is whether local facilities will have a sufficient supply of ventilators, Lynch said.

“We have received a grant from the state to purchase more ventilators,” he said. “But, everyone else is doing the same thing so there is a back log.”

Mike Herron, WARMC safety officer and member of the pandemic preparedness team, is responsible for making sure the hospital has the facilities to store their supplies and the supplies on order, he said.

“I will be responsible for verifying and maintaining extra security in the event of a pandemic outbreak,” he said. “I am also responsible for the planning phase, working with area schools, churches and other gathering places that could serve as surgery centers.”

Over the next few months, Nolting, Lynch and Herron will continue to meet locally, at the state level and attend national conferences on preparedness, they said.

“Right now, we are in the planning stages,” Herron said. “We will continue to accumulate information and work with other agencies to make sure we are prepared.”